The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone. While the real NFL draft is over, the fantasy football drafts are just beginning! That’s especially true when it comes to dynasty rookie drafts. NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Let’s dive into our dynasty rookie draft outlook and advice for a few rookies.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Here’s what Fitz expects for a few rookies selected during the 2024 NFL Draft.
Bears Draft Caleb Williams
The Chicago Bears have spent decades in search of a franchise quarterback, and they hope they landed one Thursday night when they selected USC’s Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
Widely regarded as the top quarterback in a good QB class, the 21-year-old Williams won the Heisman trophy as a sophom*ore after setting school records for passing yards (4,321) and TD passes (38) in 2022. Williams wasn’t as statistically prolific in 2023, with 3,633 passing yards and 30 TD passes, but USC’s offensive line struggled to give Williams adequate protection, and the play of Williams’ pass catchers was uneven.
Williams’ special sauce is his ability to improvise and make plays on the run. He’s a creative problem-solver capable of using clever footwork to escape a disappearing pocket or varying his arm slot on the move and still delivering a perfect strike à la Patrick Mahomes.
Although he can be a virtuoso jazz musician when plays break down, Williams is capable of making plays from the pocket, too. He has a strong, accurate arm. He makes anticipatory throws, and he’s able to fit balls into tight windows. Williams threw only 10 interceptions in 599 pass attempts over his final two college seasons.
While he’s no Lamar Jackson, Williams should offer some fantasy value as a runner. Although Williams usually keeps his eyes downfield while he’s on the move, looking for an available receiver, he isn’t afraid to take off and run. He has some speed and elusiveness, and he had 21 rushing touchdowns in his final two college seasons.
The biggest knocks on Williams are that he can be a little too quick to leave the pocket and a little too aggressive in trying to create big plays rather than making safer throws. Williams also coughed up 33 fumbles over his three college seasons.
Unlike last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Bryce Young, who as a rookie was hamstrung by a dreadful supporting cast in Carolina, Williams appears to be entering a reasonably healthy ecosystem.
The Bears already had one terrific wide receiver with D.J. Moore and added another, trading for Keenan Allen in March. Even with that duo, the Bears are likely to draft another receiver from an outstanding WR class. Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett give the Bears some pass-catching firepower at tight end. Chicago’s offensive line isn’t great, but it’s not a train wreck either. PFF graded the Bears 23rd in pass blocking last season, and the Bears ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate last year, per FTN (though former Bears QB Justin Fields is notorious for taking too many sacks).
Williams had a predraft Expert Consensus Ranking of QB18 for redraft. His predraft ADP in Underdog best-ball leagues was QB17. Those are fairly conservative rankings, and I think it would be reasonable to regard Williams as a high-end QB for redraft — somewhere in the QB13-QB15 range.
In dynasty leagues, Williams figures to be the consensus 1.01 in superflex leagues. Some people holding the No. 1 pick in superflex leagues might opt for the relative certainty of one of the top wide receivers, but QB strength is critical in superflex leagues, and Williams has a realistic chance of becoming a top-five NFL quarterback. I have Williams ranked QB6 in dynasty, one spot behind Anthony Richardson and one spot ahead of Joe Burrow.
In 1QB dynasty leagues, where the QB position isn’t as important because of ample supply and reduced demand, Williams should be a late-first-round rookie pick. He has the potential to make a significant impact even in 1QB dynasty leagues, but it would be hard to justify spending a top-7 pick on Williams in such leagues when there are so many outstanding WR prospects in the 2024 draft class.
Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile 
Commanders Draft Jayden Daniels
The Washington Commanders have tabbed Jayden Daniels as their quarterback of the future, selecting him with the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Daniels turned in a remarkable season for LSU in 2023, throwing for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns, with only four interceptions. Daniels also had 1,134 rushing yards and 10 TD runs.
It’s Daniels’ rushing potential that will most appeal to fantasy managers. He’s fast and elusive, and Daniels isn’t shy about tucking the ball away and running when he sees open space in front of him. Over his last three college seasons dating back to his final season at Arizona State in 2021, Daniels averaged 70 rushing yards per game — and that’s with sack yardage counting against a quarterback’s rushing yardage in college football.
The 23-year-old Daniels is no slouch as a passer either. He completed 72.2% of his throws last year and averaged an outrageous 11.7 yards per pass attempt. Daniels throws a pretty deep ball and throws accurately to other levels of the field, too. His lightning-quick release will serve him well in the NFL.
Perhaps the biggest concern with Jayden Daniels is the combination of a slender build and a propensity to absorb some big hits. Daniels is 6-3, 210 pounds, and he can be a little too fearless as a runner, leading to the sort of jarring shots from defenders that leave his coaches wincing. For example, Daniels was having a big game vs. Alabama last season, with 219 passing yards, 163 rushing yards and three total touchdowns, but he was knocked out of the game after absorbing a big hit early in the fourth quarter in a game LSU wound up losing 24-15.
Daniels doesn’t come into a bad situation in Washington. PFF graded the Commanders’ offensive line a respectable 15th in pass blocking. Terry McLaurin is a high-quality receiver, and Jahan Dotson could become one. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury didn’t exactly preside over high-powered offenses during his stint as the Cardinals’ head coach, but he’s regarded as something of a quarterback whisperer for his work with QBs such as Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel at the collegiate level.
Daniels had a predraft Expert Consensus Ranking of QB21 for redraft, and his predraft ADP in Underdog best-ball leagues was QB20. Those both look like good values considering that Daniels has immense rushing potential and is likely to play right away. I have him ranked QB16 in redraft and feel like that’s a conservative ranking.
In dynasty superflex leagues, Daniels figures to go somewhere from 1.02 to 1.05, depending on how dynasty managers holding top rookie picks feel about Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Drake Maye. It seems unlikely that Daniels will go ahead of Caleb Williams unless there’s an extreme Daniels truther sitting on pick 1.01. With Daniels’ remarkable athleticism and exciting run/pass potential, he’s worth an early pick.
In 12-team 1QB dynasty leagues, Daniels figures to go late in the first round or somewhere in the top half of the second round. The importance of the QB position is reduced in 1QB dynasty leagues, but Daniels still has appeal because his rushing ability gives him the potential to be a top-five fantasy scorer at the position. In 1QB dynasty leagues, Daniels figures to go somewhere in the late first or early second round.
Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile
Patriots Draft Drake Maye
The New England Patriots are charting a new course with Drake Maye as the helmsman of their offense after selecting him with the third overall pick of the NFL Draft.
A University of North Carolina product, the 21-year-old Maye started for the Tar Heels the last two seasons. He was the ACC player of the Year in 2022, throwing for 4,321 yards and 38 touchdowns in 14 games, with seven interceptions. Maye also ran for 698 yards and seven touchdowns that year.
There was some statistical slippage for Maye in 2023, as he transitioned from offensive coordinator Phil Longo’s Air Raid offense to the more conventional offense preferred by Longo’s successor, Chip Lindsey. In his final season at Chapel Hill, Maye threw for 3,608 yards and 24 touchdowns in 12 games, with nine interceptions. He ran for 449 yards and nine touchdowns.
Maye has a nearly ideal NFL toolkit with regard to size, arm strength and mobility. He measures 6-4, 223 pounds. Maye has a powerful arm, and he’s more than just a one-pitch pitcher, able to either drive the ball into tight spaces with high velocity or feather a throw with a softer touch, depending on the situation. Maye is a willing and able runner with the speed and agility to elude would-be tacklers, and the size and strength to power through arm tackles. He’ll add value as a runner in fantasy.
If there’s a knock on Maye, it’s that his decision-making can be suspect, and he can be guilty of trying to do too much. Maye can make some curious choices about throwing to traffic or vacating the pocket prematurely. He’s fumbled 10 times over the last two seasons. And as Dane Brugler of The Athletic notes, Maye had a 39-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the first half of games during his college career and a 24-12 ratio in the second half.
Maye walks into a difficult situation. The Patriots ranked 30th in total offense last year. They have one of the weakest groups of pass catchers in the league, and PFF graded the Patriots 31st in pass blocking last season. Maye will nevertheless be a coveted asset in dynasty leagues, but it’s hard to see him having significant value in redraft leagues as a rookie.
As a toolsy QB prospect with top-three draft capital, Maye should be top-five draft pick in superflex dynasty rookie drafts. He could go as early as 1.02, behind only No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams, but some dynasty managers will prefer the rushing upside of Jaden Daniels, and some will prefer the relative safety of the top two WR prospects, Marchin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers.
In redraft leagues, Maye is either a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3. He won’t be draftable in smaller leagues or leagues with shallow benches, but his combination of arm talent and rushing potential makes him worth a draft pick in deep leagues.
Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
2024 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros
ECR ™ – Expert Consensus Rankings
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Quarterbacks
- Running Backs
- Wide Receivers
- Tight Ends
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
- 1QB
- Superflex
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