Kirill Kaprizov wants to win the Stanley Cup. Therefore, the Minnesota Wild are in danger of losing Kaprizov. In his season-end press conference, Bill Guerin admitted that he didn’t build enough depth to support Kaprizov. If Guerin continues to hand out immovable extensions to veterans, it will lead to Kaprizov’s departure. Guerin took Kaprizov’s talents for granted for not building depth by expecting him to carry the team on his back, but he can make it up to Kaprizov. Guerin must take the Vegas Golden Knights’ roster-building approach to retain Kaprizov.
To best understand Vegas’ roster-building, allow me to use an analogy from the movie Kicking & Screaming. Will Ferrell (Phil Weston), Robert Duvall (Buck Weston), and Mike Ditka star in the 2005 film. Sam Weston (Dylan McLaughlin) is Phil’s son, but his grandfather Buck coaches the Gladiators and benched him. Phil told Buck he wanted Sam to play, but he wasn’t good enough to play in the Gladiators’ starting lineup. So Phil took Sam off the Gladiators and moved him to the Tigers. However, the Tigers didn’t have a head coach, so Phil took over.
The Tigers were a bad team with no true talent until they got two Italian players named Gian Piero (Francesco Liotti) and Massimo (Alessandro Ruggiero), who worked at their father’s butcher shop. Phil saw their natural skills when they were juggling a ball made up of crumpled-up meat-wrapping paper and kicking it into a garbage can. Ditka was Buck’s next-door neighbor, and Ditka hated Buck, so Phil got Ditka to become his assistant coach and stick it to Buck. Immediately, the Italians were dominating their opponents. They couldn’t be stopped and played the Gladiators in the finals.
The Tigers made the finals thanks to Piero and Massimo’s contributions. The Gladiators had a game plan to shut them down, forcing the Tigers to rely on their depth. The Tigers won the game with their depth, but Massimo and Piero got them to the finals.
Imagine if the Tigers didn’t have Massimo and Piero. Would the Tigers even make the playoffs?
Guerin’s using Kaprizov like Piero and Massimo. While the Wild has their core four in Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Brock Faber, Minnesota wouldn’t have come anywhere near the playoffs last year without him. How can Guerin improve the depth behind Kaprizov? The Wild can’t afford to make low-cost trades to address depth. They will need to make high-impact and low-risk/high-reward trades to build a competitive team around Kaprizov in 2024-25.
Guerin must turn the Wild into a contender who can finish in the top five in the West. Everyone around the league hates Vegas for circumventing the cap, but everyone acknowledges that they’re willing to give up their future to win now. The Knights started their winning movement by trading for Jack Eichel.
The Knights had a team full of depth, including signing Alex Pietrangelo, but they needed a superstar. Luckily, the Wild don’t have to trade for a superstar. However, Guerin shouldn't treat Kaprizov like Piero and Massimo.
The Knights won their first championship last year and traded for Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl to create depth around Eichel. The Knights officially have a 1-2 punch down the middle in Eichel and Hertl, making them Knights deeper. Guerin is looking to upgrade depth but also wants to add size. Instead, he should look to upgrade size with skill.
Guerin says the Wild aren’t rebuilding. However, Guerin’s commitment to veteran players may lead to Marco Rossi’s departure. The Athletic’s Michael Russo has reported that the Wild are considering moving him. Rossi has come a long way from battling a potentially lethal heart condition, breaking out with 21 goals in his rookie season. He was Minnesota’s most consistent five-on-five forward on a team that struggled to produce offensively. Rossi’s just getting started and will only improve his game. However, Guerin may not wait for Rossi to improve.
Guerin’s biggest trade chips are Rossi, Filip Gustavsson, and Minnesota’s first-round pick this year. Guerin isn’t rebuilding, so he needs impact players more than his 1st round pick. However, it’s strange that Guerin seems focused on improving his forward group while not touching the blueline.
Guerin’s not going to move captain Jared Spurgeon, but he must account for Spurgeon’s recent injury history and figure out how to monitor Spurgeon’s minutes. The same goes for Jonas Brodin, who hasn't played 70 games since the 2021-22 season. Therefore, Minnesota’s blueline is fragile.
Guerin should offer pick 13 to the Montreal Canadiens for Kaiden Guhle. The 22-year-old is a defenseman who chooses violence. Guhle and Faber would make a fantastic duo who can play top-pairing minutes. At 6-foot-3, 205 lbs., Ghule has size and will stand up for his teammates.
Guerin should target Nick Perbix by trading Gustavsson (50% retained) to the Tampa Bay Lightning. Perbix was born in Elk River, Minn., like Nate Prosser. But Perbix, 25, is bigger (6-foot-3, 202 lbs.) and more skilled than Prosser and can play on the second pair. Perbix is a defensive defenseman but with some offensive upside and bite.
Spurgeon is the team’s seventh defenseman, so the Wild will have a fresh Spurgeon if they need him. Injuries happen, and there’s nothing better than a healthy Spurgeon. Jon Merrill will be the eighth defenseman. Declan Chisholm will play on the second pair in an offensive defenseman role, leaving Zach Bogosian and Jonas Brodin on the third pair, making Jake Middleton expendable. The Philadelphia Flyers have two first-round picks (12th and 30th). The Wild should target pick 30.
Guerin is better off trading for a top-six upgrade because he must eventually extend Kaprizov and Faber. Martin Necas, Kaapo Kakko, Pavel Buchnevich, and Trevor Zegras are on the trade market. However, the St. Louis Blues want to bring back Buchnevich, leaving Guerin with Necas, Kakko, and Zegras.
Trading for Kakko is a low-risk/high-reward trade, and the Wild wouldn’t have to move their first-round pick, Rossi, or Gustavsson to get him. Guerin should give him a change of scenery. Kakko’s current cap hit is $2.1 million, and he should settle on a bridge contract. He’s 6-foot-2, 205 lbs., and plays a strong defensive game similar to Nino Niederreiter.
Guerin needs to ask Johansson to waive his No-Trade Clause (NTC). He brings speed to the New York Rangers’ middle-six. The Rangers are a better contender than the Wild, and Johansson could find the Rangers to be a better-suited team for him. Guerin would have to trade either a 2nd or 3rd round pick to make it official, but it’s worth pursuing Kakko.
Carolina Hurricanes center Martin Necas should also be a priority target because he’s a right winger who can play center. He addresses size (6-foot-2, 200 lbs.) but plays similarly to Boldy. Can Guerin afford Necas?
Nacas carries a $3 million cap hit, and he is a pending Restricted Free Agent (RFA). Zegras ($5.75 million) and Dylan Strome ($5 million) recently signed extensions. Is it possible that Guerin can get Necas to agree to a cap hit in the $6 to $6.5 million range? The 25-year-old winger is approaching his prime years, making trading Rossi for him more viable.
If Rossi isn’t enough, can Guerin give the Canes a conditional 2025 first-round pick? The condition would be that Carolina gets a first if the Wild win a Cup, but it becomes a second if they don’t.
Can Guerin get Gaudreau to waive his Modified No-Trade Clause (M-NTC)? Necas, Kakko, and Danila Yurov could create a true second line in 2025-26. Necas can play second-line center until he comes over. Guerin can sign a fourth-line center for one year so Yurov won't be blocked.
Guerin must keep Kaprizov, even if it means trading Rossi. Guerin also improved his fragile blueline. In this scenario, Guhle (22) and Perbix (25) are additions to the top-four that will keep Brodin and Spurgeon durable. Guerin also traded for Necas, 25, who can hold Yurov’s place by replacing Rossi at center because Mats Zuccarello can play wing. Guerin faces a challenging, franchise-defining summer but can create a better team with limited cap space.
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