Everything you need to know about the QB, RB and TE groups in the 2024 draft
While the WR class is going to steal a lot of the limelight in the 2024 draft, dynasty players can still rebuild other positions with great value picks and smart drafting.
There are five quarterbacks who could easily win starting jobs out of the gate in their rookie year, and at least the first three of those are likely to be guaranteed starters for day one of the new season.
There’s a perception of a lack of depth at tight end, which holds some truth but not entirely. Additionally, we need to address the running back situation.
Let’s start with the value of your draft picks.
Dynasty Pick Value(s)
If your roster is stacked at wide receiver, you might be the one who benefits from 2024 dynasty drafts the most in standard half/full PPR formats. These dynasty drafts are expected to feature so many wide receivers that the value at both RB and TE will slide further than perhaps it should.
Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. are going to be the 1.01 and 1.02, and those draft picks are currency expected to cost in the region of Trevor Lawrence value, or that of A.J. Brown/Jonathan Taylor.
Jayden Daniels will be off most boards in the top five, especially with his potential as a running quarterback. You’ll be able to grab J.J. McCarthy and Drake Maye a little later, but both could and likely should come off dynasty boards late in the first round.
Of course, in Superflex leagues that changes significantly.
Brock Bowers will be the first non QB/WR off the board, unless one of the running backs lands in a spot like Dallas inside the first two rounds. If you’re considering trading up for or out of the spot for Bowers, you’re probably looking at anything between the 1.06 and 1.08 picks.
Those picks are currently valued at around the same mark as Stefon Diggs, Mike Evans and D’Andre Swift. Depending on where Bowers lands, that could be worth making a play for. If he lands with Justin Herbert or Shane Steichen in Indianapolis alongside Anthony Richardson, it could attract interest in people trading up to acquire him.
The quarterbacks: Potential Starters and Overall Summary
The 2024 draft will produce three starting quarterbacks in the first three picks, that much is obvious. The Bears traded Justin Fields, the Commanders traded Sam Howell, and the Patriots traded Mac Jones. All three will be taking new franchise quarterbacks, which means dynasty drafts will be littered with guys who are at the very least going to be on the field right out of the gate.
The challenge lies in the fact that quarterbacks drafted later may find themselves in more favorable situations. For instance, whoever the Patriots draft will join one of the league’s weakest wide receiver groups and an untested coaching staff, potentially leading to early struggles.
In contrast, whoever the Minnesota Vikings land might not be guaranteed to start on day one, but he’ll inherit Kevin O’Connell as a head coach and a support cast of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and tight end TJ Hockenson. It doesn’t get much more favorable than that, and the rumor is Drake Maye could be the guy who benefits from that situation.
If that scenario were to unfold, Drake Maye in Minnesota as QB3, following Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, could prove to be a valuable option. Daniels, in particular, has the potential to excel as a rookie if he becomes heavily involved in the running game.
Later in the first round and beyond, look out for Bo Nix as a potential system QB for a team like Minnesota or Denver. He will be in demand, as will Michael Penix Jr. The latter is not a mobile quarterback, and will do all of his work from the pocket as a result.
The most interesting spot though is wherever J.J. McCarthy lands. With his high football IQ, toughness, locker room reputation, and sneaky dual threat ability – this could make him a pretty safe fantasy play for quite some time. The Giants and New England are rumored to be top contenders for him. However, neither team has ideal talent at WR/TE.
If you’re going to aim for a guy late in your dynasty drafts, make it either Spencer Rattler out of South Carolina or Joe Milton from Tennessee. Both have elite tools to play at NFL level, but both have a lot of work to do mentally to piece it all together. The highlight play potential is there, along with the strong arm, mobility etc., but being able to showcase that consistently enough without error is going to be the main factor for both.
The Running Backs. A Lack Of Early Value But Several Mid-round Starters
The 2024 running back class is a minefield. Jonathon Brooks out of Texas is expected to be the RB1, but even he won’t be selected on day one of the draft.
Coming back from a torn ACL during the 2023 season, Brooks is still working on his road to recovery. He’s such an unknown commodity that the boom or bust potential is off the charts. We didn’t get to see him play behind Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, not until this year, and then he had his season cut short. Prior to going down he was averaging 6.1 yards per carry, and notched 187 carries in total for 1,135 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
After Brooks, the situation becomes unclear. The RB2, or even the RB1, could be any of several players. Blake Corum out of Michigan is one that scouts are overthinking, but he is undersized at the NFL level. Then there’s Jaylen Wright out of Tennessee, Bucky Irving from Oregon, Trey Benson from FSU and several others.
It’s a strange year, and we won’t see running backs early, but once they do start to come off the board there will be many of them.
Landing spot is crucial here, with several teams having wide open spots for running backs to claim significant roles.
Cincinnati is one of those, with Zach Moss coming in while Joe Mixon goes out. Then you have the Las Vegas backfield currently featuring Zamir White and Alex Mattison, neither of which have proven to be viable starters yet in their careers.
Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers will almost undoubtedly be in the market despite signing both JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards, previously of the Ravens. Devin Singletary is currently in line to be the primary ball carrier for the New York Giants, but that won’t be enough, and the Dallas Cowboys are in no man’s land with a running back room currently featuring Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman…
So, if you see somebody like Jaylen Wright land with the New York Giants, his value rises tremendously. Wright is definitely a favorite back from this year’s class, with clear comparison to Jahymr Gibbs. He’s a home run threat at any moment, and likely serves best as part of a running back duo, a lot like Gibbs and David Montgomery in Detroit.
The Tight Ends: Although lacking depth, targeting players like Brock Bowers and JaTavion Sanders early on can yield significant value.
The tight end class is a strange one this year. Many decent tight ends are being disrespected, with so many only mentioning Georgia’s Brock Bowers and Texas talent JaTavion Sanders.
Granted, both are far and away the best two tight ends in the class. Bowers will be the lone first round tight end, while Sanders is expected to find a landing spot relatively early on day two.
When it comes to drafting the two of them in dynasty, you’re going to need a top six or seven pick for Bowers, but perhaps an early to mid-second rounder for JaTavion Sanders.
The latter will rely heavily on the landing spot. For instance, if Sanders were to join the Bengals, he could quickly rise to the early second round of your dynasty drafts. The same would be true for Indianapolis, and while the Denver Broncos don’t yet have their quarterback situation resolved, that too is a great spot for a promising tight end.
That being said, there is late round value in a few tight ends that could make an impact. Cade Stover out of Ohio State leads the rest of the pack, and Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott can offer a lot of late value at the TE position too.
You’ll be able to pick up these players either in the late third round or from the free agency market. So, if you’re in need of a tight end or perhaps relying heavily on Travis Kelce, these players are worth considering.
Sleepers across the board
The real sleepers in this year’s class lie amongst the running backs. The tight end class is too thin from the middle to the bottom tiers to really hide any gems. Then the quarterback sleepers, at least those that are even mildly interesting in fantasy, are the two which have already been mentioned. If it’s not Spencer Rattler or Joe Milton late in the draft, it’s likely not worth the risk.
So, looking at the running backs, don’t sleep on Ray Davis. The five-year college talent had to go from Temple to Vanderbilt before finally landing at Kentucky in 2023, where he surged to his second straight 1,000-yard season. Davis is a tough runner, and if you need an example of what he’s capable of, go and check out the 280-yard, three touchdown performance against Florida this past season.
Tyrone Tracy from Purdue is considered a mid-round running back with great value. Additionally, players like Audric Estime from Notre Dame, Braelon Allen from Wisconsin, and Cody Schrader from Missouri are also highly regarded, with Schrader potentially being the standout among them.
The 2024 draft presents a considerable amount of 4th-5th round running back talent, which is expected to be quickly drafted once the mid rounds commence.
They’ll be a lot of focus post-draft on assessing where each player lands, considering factors such as scheme fit, potential for significant playing time, and expected productivity within their new offensive systems.
Teams being closely monitored for potential running back additions include the Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Giants, Panthers, and Vikings.
One piece of advice: If you’re playing full or even half PPR leagues, check on the running backs who can contribute the most as pass catchers. Memphis’ Blake Watson was second in the nation this past year with 461 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns, while Oregon’s Bucky Irving wasn’t all that far behind with 361 yards and two touchdowns of his own.
Summary
In general, the QB value drops off a cliff once Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix have been selected. The same is true for the tight ends beyond Cade Stover and Ben Sinnott, but the running backs will be the gift that keeps on giving for dynasty players during the 2024 draft.
Make a push for your tight end early if you’re in need, and consider drafting late-round running backs in favorable situations for rotational roles. Remember to reserve a special focus for whoever the Dallas Cowboys select, given the current state of their running back room.
